So What’s Happening In The Shipping Reports?

I saw some pieces in Zero Hedge.  Yes you could say that’s calamity Tyler and DOOM! DOOM! DOOM!  Still there are some worrisome rumblings from different places that aren’t making the Mainstream media. I’ve held on to this post for a while to see if anything changed and it has, for the worse.

It looks like transportation service requirements are dropping dramatically  all over the world.  It seems like people are moving less, of well everything.  With an economy that still hasn’t recovered from the LAST recession, this is not good news.

The tankers are piling up outside Galveston.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/something-very-strange-taking-place-coast-Galveston

Freight shipments are way down year over year.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/us-freight-%E2%80%9Cplummets%E2%80%9D-worst-october-2011

Ok, these stories are both from Zero Hedge. There’s this one on Brickmuppet about Maersk laying off 4,000 people.

http://brickmuppet.mee.nu/portents_in_the_shipping_industry

Now Maersk is primarily container shipping, so the shipping issues are going far beyond oil.

The Baltic Dry Index is in the tank.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/baltic-dry-index-drops-to-lowest-level-since-1986-1.2940711

https://gcaptain.com/baltic-dry-falls-below-500-for-first-time-ever/

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-ports-providing-evidence-why-fed-may-raise-rates-michael-haltman

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/750

I also posted this a couple of months ago.

https://theartsmechanical.wordpress.com/2015/09/26/slump-in-oil-by-rail-shipments-boosts-car-storage-business/

It looks like rail shipping is in trouble as well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-12/sorry-warren-buffett-things-just-went-bad-worse-us-railroads

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-economy-still-track-erico-matias-tavares

This from the WSJ.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/quiet-u-s-ports-spark-slowdown-fears-1447583406

The big problem is that nobody’s buying.  Look, with healthcare mandated and ever more expensive, layoffs happening right and left, who’s going to take the chance on purchases if they don’t have to make them.  This is what happens when you play games with the economy.  You send ripples across that you never planned for with static thinking.  Those ripples have an ugly way of bouncing back on things that you didn’t want them to.

With Obama, spouting off tonight about his legacy, here it is on stack of charts and idle trucks, trains and ships.  This is  the consequences of the administration’s punt gun blasts on the economy. This is what happens when an entire political class is SO out of touch that they no longer even see the people out of work, the factories closing, the empty cities, towns and homes.  One hopes that the next administration will be able to repair some of the damage.

Update:
Yet another report.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/new-low-on-baltic-dry-index-could-bring-indian-ocean-trade-to-a-halt/

Update(01/23/16):

From the UK telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/12108453/Zombie-ships-send-maritime-freight-into-worst-crisis-in-living-memory.html

Another report.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3823646-2016-will-catastrophic-dry-bulk-baltic-dry-index-sets-another-historic-low

Stuff isn’t moving. One thing that the telegraph report makes clear is that the shipping companies are deep in debt with ships that have huge debts that they carry.  if the ships can’t find cargoes, the resulting issues could start to take shipping companies and then banks with them.

It’s not just bulk and tanker.  Containers are taking a hit too. And rail shipments seem to be 50,000 carloads below what they were at the same time last year.

https://www.aar.org/Pages/Freight-Rail-Traffic-Data.aspx

It looks like trucking is taking a hit too.

http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/fleet-management/news/story/2016/01/spot-rates-available-cargo-plummet-from-previous-week.aspx

It’s looking like the crap is hitting the rotary impellor.  This is across the board and just all modes of transportation.  The problem is how much debt is not being serviced by the stuff that’s not moving and what’s going to happen when that debt can no longer be carried.

Update (01/26/16)

Zombie ships and no cargos?
http://gcaptain.com/2016/01/21/no-calmer-waters-in-sight-as-owners-of-zombie-containerships-try-to-tough-it-out/#.VqgXHGD2ZYe

http://www.soefart.dk/app/doc/Container_Market.pdf

For more on the dysfunctional economy click Here or on the tag below.

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8 comments

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  4. masgramondou · January 23, 2016

    Part of the problem with oceanic shipping (this includes the Baltic Dry Index) is that the number of ships increased dramatically over the last few years while cargo hasn’t grown as fast. Classic example of oversupply leading to price crash (see also oil).

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/01/20/to-explain-the-baltic-dry-index-plunge-its-supply-not-demand/

    Now I don’t disagree that the world’s economy is not in the most robust health, but at least some of this is overoptimism on the side of the suppliers

    Like

    • jccarlton · January 23, 2016

      I saw the Forbes report. And then went back and started to look at volume and other modes. The downturn is very real and very large.

      Like

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